an:06222456
Zbl 1273.92034
Hughes, Harriet; Britton, N. F.
Modelling the use of \textit{Wolbachia} to control dengue fever transmission
EN
Bull. Math. Biol. 75, No. 5, 796-818 (2013).
00324360
2013
j
92C60 37N25
Summary: Experiments and field trials have shown that the intracellular bacterium \textit{Wolbachia} may be introduced into populations of the mosquito \textit{Aedes aegypti}, the primary vector for dengue fever. In the absence of \textit{Wolbachia}, a mosquito acquiring the dengue virus from an infected human enters an exposed (infected but not infectious) period before becoming infectious itself. A \textit{Wolbachia}-infected mosquito that acquires dengue (i) may have a reduced lifespan, so that it is less likely to survive the exposed period and become infectious, and (ii) may have a reduced ability to transmit dengue, even if it has survived the exposed period. \textit{Wolbachia} introduction has therefore been suggested as a potential dengue control measure.
We set up a mathematical model for the system to investigate this suggestion and to evaluate the desirable properties of the \textit{Wolbachia} strain to be introduced. We show that \textit{Wolbachia} has excellent potential for dengue control in areas where \(R_0\) is not too large. However, if \(R_0\) is large, \textit{Wolbachia} strains that reduce but do not eliminate dengue transmission have little effect on endemic steady states or epidemic sizes. Unless control measures to reduce \(R_0\) by reducing mosquito populations are also put in place, it may be worth the extra effort in such cases to introduce \textit{Wolbachia} strains that eliminate dengue transmission completely.