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Pre-symptomatic influenza transmission, surveillance, and school closings: implications for novel influenza A (H1N1). (English) Zbl 1187.92065
Summary: Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. We develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.

92C60 Medical epidemiology
62P25 Applications of statistics to social sciences
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
37N25 Dynamical systems in biology
Full Text: DOI EuDML