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AIDS: Exponential vs. polynomial growth models. (English) Zbl 0686.62095

Summary: Epidemic theory suggests that the early part of an epidemic can be characterized by exponential growth in the number of infections. This model is tested using aggregate data of reported AIDS cases in Canada and the U.S.A. Alternative polynomial type growth models are shown to provide a better fit to the data when gamma incubation period models are used.

MSC:

62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
92D25 Population dynamics (general)
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References:

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