Panjer, Harry H. AIDS: Exponential vs. polynomial growth models. (English) Zbl 0686.62095 Insur. Math. Econ. 8, No. 3, 203-209 (1989). Summary: Epidemic theory suggests that the early part of an epidemic can be characterized by exponential growth in the number of infections. This model is tested using aggregate data of reported AIDS cases in Canada and the U.S.A. Alternative polynomial type growth models are shown to provide a better fit to the data when gamma incubation period models are used. MSC: 62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics 92D25 Population dynamics (general) Keywords:epidemiology; forecasting; MLE; exponential growth; AIDS; polynomial type growth models; gamma incubation period models PDFBibTeX XMLCite \textit{H. H. Panjer}, Insur. Math. Econ. 8, No. 3, 203--209 (1989; Zbl 0686.62095) Full Text: DOI References: [1] Abramowitz, M.; Stegun, I. A., Handbook of Mathematical Functions (1970), National Bureau of Standards: National Bureau of Standards Washington, DC · Zbl 0515.33001 [2] Anderson, R. M., The epidemiology of HIV infection: Variable incubation plus infectious periods and heterogeneity in sexual activity, J.R. Statist. Soc., A 151, 66 (1988) · Zbl 1159.92313 [3] Brookmeyer, R.; Gail, M., A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic, J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 83, 301 (1988) · Zbl 0644.62108 [4] Isham, V., Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS: A review, J.R. Statist. Soc., A 151, 5 (1988) · Zbl 1001.92550 [5] Kalbfleisch, J. D.; Lawless, J. F., A comment on estimation of incubation periods and epidemic parameters based on data on AIDS patients infected by blood transfusion, (Technical Report STAT-87-24 (1987), Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo: Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ont) · Zbl 0677.62099 [6] Medley, G. F., Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion, Nature, 328, 719-721 (1987) [7] Panjer, H. H., AIDS: Survival analysis of persons testing HIV +, Trans. Soc. Act., 40 (1987), (to appear) [8] Panjer, H. H., AIDS: Some aspects of modelling the insurance risk, Trans. Soc. Act., 41 (1988), (to appear) [9] Rees, M., The sombre view of AIDS, Nature, 326, 343-345 (1987) [10] Ross, S. M., Introduction to Probability Models (1985), Academic Press: Academic Press Orlando, FL · Zbl 0647.60002 This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.