×

Issues in the theoretical foundations of climate science. (English) Zbl 1395.86005

Summary: The theoretical foundations of climate science have received little attention from philosophers thus far, despite a number of outstanding issues. We provide a brief, non-technical overview of several of these issues - related to theorizing about climates, climate change, internal variability and more - and attempt to make preliminary progress in addressing some of them. In doing so, we hope to open a new thread of discussion in the emerging area of philosophy of climate science, focused on theoretical foundations.

MSC:

86A10 Meteorology and atmospheric physics
76E20 Stability and instability of geophysical and astrophysical flows
00A35 Methodology of mathematics

Software:

MAGICC
PDF BibTeX XML Cite
Full Text: DOI Link

References:

[1] Arguez, A.; Vose, R. S., The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: the key to deriving alternative climate normals, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92, 699-704, (2011)
[2] Berger, A.; Loutre, M. F., An exceptionally long interglacial ahead?, Science, 297, 1287-1288, (2002)
[3] Betz, G., Are climate models credible worlds? prospects and limitations of possibilistic climate prediction, European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 5, 2, 191-215, (2015)
[4] Bindoff, N. L.; Stott, P. A.; AchutaRao, K. M.; Allen, M. R.; Gillett, N.; Gutzler, D.; Hansingo, K.; Hegerl, G.; Hu, Y.; Jain, S.; Mokhov, I. I.; Overland, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Sebbari, R.; Zhang, X., Detection and attribution of climate change: from global to regional, (Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; Midgley, P. M., Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, (2013), Cambridge University Press Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA)
[5] Charney, J. G., Carbon dioxide and climate: A scientific assessment, (1979), National Academy of Science Washington, DC
[6] Chekroun, M. D.; Simonnet, E.; Ghil, M., Stochastic climate dynamics: random attractors and time-dependent invariant measures, Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 240, 21, 1685-1700, (2011) · Zbl 1244.37046
[7] Collins, M.; Knutti, R.; Arblaster, J.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fichefet, T.; Friedlingstein, P., Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility. in: climate change 2013: the physical science basis, (Stocker, T. F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S. K.; Boschung, J.; etal., Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change, (2013), Cambridge University Press Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA)
[8] Daron, J.; Stainforth, D. A., On predicting climate under climate change, Environmental Research Letters, 8, (2013)
[9] Dewar, R. C.; Lineweaver, C. H.; Niven, R. K.; Regenauer-Lieb, K., Beyond the second law: an overview, (Dewar, R. C.; etal., Beyond the second law, understanding complex systems, (2014), Springer-Verlag Berlin), 3-27
[10] Dijkstra, H. A.; Viebahn, J. P., Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: A conditional nonlinear approach, Numerical Simulation, 22, 13-22, (2015) · Zbl 1331.86011
[11] Drόtos, G.; Bόdai, T.; Tél, T., Probabilistic concepts in a changing climate: A snapshot attractor picture, Journal of Climate, 28, 8, 3275-3288, (2015)
[12] Franzke, C. L.E.; O’Kane, T. J.; Berner, J.; Williams, P. D.; Lucarini, V., Stochastic climate theory and modeling, WIREs Climate Change, 6, 63-78, (2015)
[13] Frigg, R.; Thompson, E.; Werndl, C., Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change, Philosophy Compass, 10, 12, 953-964, (2015)
[14] Ghil, M., A mathematical theory of climate sensitivity or, how to deal with both anthropogenic forcing and natural variability?, (Chang, C. P., Climate Change: Multidecadal and beyond, (2015), World Scientific Publishing Company), 31-51
[15] Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Good, P., The inconstancy of the transient climate response parameter under increasing CO2, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 373, 2054, (2015)
[16] Hawkins, E.; Smith, R.; Gregory, J.; Stainforth, D. A., Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections, Climate Dynamics, 46, 11-12, 3807-3809, (2016)
[17] Herbert, C.; Paillard, D.; Kageyama, M.; Dubrulle, B., Present and last glacial maximum climates as states of maximum entropy production, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137, 1059-1069, (2011)
[18] von der Heydt, A.; Ashwin, P., State dependence of climate sensitivity: attractor constraints and palaeoclimate regimes, Dynamics and Statistics of the Climate System, 1, 1, 1-16, (2016)
[19] von der Heydt, A.; Dijkstra, H. A.; van de Wal, R. S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G., Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes, Current Climate Change Reports, 2, 148-158, (2016)
[20] Harrison, S.; Stainforth, D., Predicting climate change: lessons from reductionism, emergence, and the past, Eos, 90, 13, 111-112, (2009)
[21] Hasselmann, K., Stochastic climate models part I. theory, Tellus, 28, 6, 473-485, (1976)
[22] Huybers, P.; Curry, W., Links between annual, milankovitch and continuum temperature variability, Nature, 441, 18, 329-332, (2006)
[23] Intemann, K., Distinguishing between legitimate and illegitimate values in climate modeling, European Journal for Philosophy of Science, 5, 2, 217-223, (2015)
[24] IPCC, (Mach, K. J.; Planton, S.; von Stechow, C., Climate change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment Report of the intergovernmental Panel on climate change, (2014), IPCC Geneva, Switzerland), 117-130, [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]
[25] Katzav, J., Severe testing of climate change hypotheses, Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics, 44, 4, 433-441, (2013) · Zbl 1281.86002
[26] Katzav, J., The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science, Studies In History and Philosophy of Modern Physics, 46, 228-238, (2014) · Zbl 1315.86002
[27] Katzav, J.; Dijkstra, H. A.; de Laat, A. T.J., Assessing climate model projections: state of the art and philosophical reflections, Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics, 43, 4, 258-276, (2012) · Zbl 1281.86001
[28] Katzav, J.; Parker, W. S., The future of climate modeling, Climatic Change, 132, 375-387, (2015)
[29] Knudsen, M. F.; Jacobsen, B. F.; Seidenkrantz, M.-S.; Olsen, J., Evidence for external forcing of the atlantic multidecadal oscillation Since termination of the little ice age, Nature Communications, 5, 3323, (2014)
[30] Knutti, R.; Rugenstein, M. A.A., Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 373, 20150146, (2017)
[31] Lawhead, J.. (forthcoming) Structural modelling error and the system individuation problem, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.
[32] Lloyd, E. A., Confirmation and robustness of climate models, Philosophy of Science, 77, 5, 971-984, (2010)
[33] Lloyd, E. A., The role of ’complex’ empiricism in the debates about satellite data and climate models, Studies In History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 43, 2, 390-401, (2012)
[34] Lorenz, E., Climate is what you expect, (1995), prepared for publication by NCAR, 1-33, unpublished
[35] Lovejoy, S., Return periods of global climate fluctuations, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 13, 4704-4710, (2014)
[36] Lovejoy, S., A voyage through scales, a missing quadrillion and why the climate is not what you expect, Climate Dynamics, 44, 11, 3187-3210, (2015)
[37] Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D., The weather and climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades, (2013), Cambridge University Press Cambridge · Zbl 1378.86002
[38] Meinshausen, M.; Raper, S. C.B.; Wigley, T. M.L., Emulating coupled atmosphere-Ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - part 1: model description and calibration, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, 1417-1456, (2011)
[39] Ozawa, H.; Ohmura, A.; Lorenz, R. D.; Pujol, T., The second law of thermodynamics and the global climate system: A review of the maximum entropy production principle, Reviews of Geophysics, 41, 4, 1018-1042, (2003)
[40] Palmer, T., A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction, Journal of Climate, 12, 575-591, (1999)
[41] Paltridge, G. W., The steady-state format of global climate, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 104, 927-945, (1978)
[42] Paltridge, G. W., Climate and thermodynamic systems of maximum dissipation, Nature, 279, 630-631, (1979)
[43] Parker, W. S., Confirmation and adequacy-for-purpose in climate modelling, Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, Supplementary Volume, 83, 1, 233-249, (2009)
[44] Parker, W. S., Comparative process tracing and climate change fingerprints, Philosophy of Science, 77, 5, 1083-1095, (2010)
[45] Parker, W. S., Predicting weather and climate: uncertainty, ensembles and probability, Studies in History and Philosophy of Modern Physics, 41, 3, 263-272, (2010)
[46] Parker, W. S., Values and uncertainties in climate prediction, revisited, Studies in History and Philosophy of Science, 46, 24-30, (2014)
[47] Pielke, R. A., Heat storage within the climate system, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 331-335, (2003)
[48] Pielke, R. A., A broader view of the role of humans in the climate system, Physics Today, 61, 11, 54-55, (2008)
[49] Pielke, R. A., Recommended definitions of global warming’ and ‘climate change’, (2010), (last downloaded on 12/10/2016)
[50] Rahmstorf, S., Ocean heat content, a particularly lousy policy target, (2014), (last downloaded on 27/09/2016)
[51] Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K., Late quaternary temperature variability described as abrupt transitions on a 1/f noise background, Earth System Dynamics, 7, 281-293, (2016)
[52] Schmidt, G. A.; Shindell, D. T.; Miller, R. L.; Mann, M. E.; Rind, D., General circulation modelling of holocene climate variability, Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2004, 2167-2181, (2004)
[53] Schubert, G.; Mitchell, J. L., Planetary atmospheres as heat engines, (Mackwell, S. J.; Simon-Miller, A. A.; Harder, G. W.; Bullock, M. A., Comparative climatology of terrestrial planets, (2013), The University of Arizona Press Tucson), 181-192
[54] Senior, C. A.; Mitchell, J. F.B., The time-dependence of climate sensitivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 17, 2685-2688, (2000)
[55] Sévellec, F.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Drijfhout, S. S., Dynamical attribution of oceanic prediction uncertainty in the north atlantic: application to the design of optimal monitoring systems, Climate Dynamics, (2017)
[56] Sherwood, S. C.; Bony, S.; Boucher, O.; Bretherton, C.; Forster, P. M.; Gregory, J. M., Adjustments in the forcing-feedback framework for understanding climate change, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 2, 217-228, (2015)
[57] Skinner, L., A long view on climate sensitivity, Science, 337, 917-919, (2012)
[58] Stott, P. A., Attribution of weather and climate-related events, (Asrar, G. R.; Hurrell, J. W., Climate science for serving Society: Research, modelling and prediction priorities, (2013), Springer Dordrecht)
[59] USNRC (United States National Research Council), Radiative forcing of climate change: expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties, (2005), Committee on radiative forcing effects on climate, climate research committee
[60] Vezér, M. A., Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: an epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, Studies In History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 56, 95-102, (2016)
[61] Victor, D. G.; Kennel, C. F., Ditch the 2°C warming goal, Nature, 514, (2014)
[62] Werndl, C., On defining climate and climate change, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 67, 2, 337-364, (2016)
[63] Winsberg, E., Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models, Kennedy Institute of Ethics Journal, 22, 2, 111-137, (2012)
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. It attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming the completeness or perfect precision of the matching.