zbMATH — the first resource for mathematics

A model of the Ebola epidemics in West Africa incorporating age of infection. (English) Zbl 1448.92354
Summary: A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individuals structured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection is tracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followed by an infectious phase with variable transmission infectiousness. The removal of infected individuals is dependent on disease age, with three types of removal rates: (1) removal due to hospitalization (isolation), (2) removal due to mortality separate from hospitalization, and (3) removal due to recovery separate from hospitalization. The model is applied to the Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Guinea. Model simulations indicate that successive stages of increased and earlier hospitalization of cases have resulted in mitigation of the epidemics.

92D30 Epidemiology
PDF BibTeX Cite
Full Text: DOI
[1] C.L. Althaus, Estimating the reproduction number of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, September 2, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[2] S.E. Bellan, J.R.C. Pulliam, J. Dushoff, and L.A. Meyers, Ebola control: Effect of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity, Lancet 384 (2014), pp. 1499-1500. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61839-0[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[3] H.A. Bolkan, D.A. Bash-Taqi, M. Samai, M. Gerdin, and J. von Schreeb, Ebola and Indirect Effects on Health Service Function in Sierra Leone, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, December 19, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[4] C. Browne, H. Gulbudak, and G. Webb, Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola, J. Theoret. Biol. 384 (2015), pp. 33-49. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1343.92462
[5] A. Camacho, A. Kucharski, Y. Aki-Sawyerr, M.A. White, S. Flasche, M. Baguelin, T. Pollington, J. R. Carney, R. Glover, E. Smout, A. Tiffany, W. J. Edmunds, and S. Funk, Temporal changes in Ebola transmission in Sierra Leone and Iimplications for control requirements: A real-time modelling study, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, February 10, 2015. [Google Scholar]
[6] CDC, Center for disease control and Prevention, What is contact tracing? Contact tracing can stop the Ebola outbreak in its track. Available at http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/pdf/contact-tracing.pdf. [Google Scholar]
[7] D. Chowell, C. Castillo-Chavez, S. Krishna, X. Qiu, and K.S. Anderson, Modelling the effect of early detection of Ebola, Lancet, 15, February 2015. [Google Scholar]
[8] G. Chowell, N.W. Hengartner, C. Castillo-Chavez, P.W. Fenimore, and J.M. Hyman, The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda, J. Theoret. Biol. 229 (2004), pp. 119-126. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.03.006[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1440.92062
[9] G. Chowell and H. Nishiura, Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): A review, BMC Med. 12 (2014), p. 196. doi: 10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[10] G. Chowell, L. Simonsen, C. Viboud, and Y. Kuang, Is West Africa approaching a catastrophic phase or is the 2014 Ebola epidemic slowing down? Different models yield different answers for Liberia, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1984. [Google Scholar]
[11] G. Chowell, C. Viboud, J.M. Hyman, and L. Simonsen, The Western Africa Ebola virus disease epidemic exhibits both global exponential and local polynomial growth rates, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, January 21, 2015. [Google Scholar]
[12] D. Fisman, E. Khoo, and A. Tuite, Early epidemic dynamics of the West African 2014 Ebola outbreak: Estimates derived with a simple two-parameter model, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, September 8, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[13] M. Gomes, A. Pastore, y. Piontti, L. Rossi, D. Chao, I. Longini, M. Halloran, and A. Vespignani, Assessing the international spreading risk associated with the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, September 2, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[14] C.N. Haas, On the quarantine period for Ebola virus, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, October 14, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[15] H. Inaba. and H. Nishiura, The state-reproduction number for a multistate class age structured epidemic system and its application to the asymptomatic transmission model, Math. Biosci. 216 (2008), pp. 77-89. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2008.08.005[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1152.92021
[16] M. Kiskowski, A three-scale network model for the early growth dynamics of 2014 West Africa Ebola epidemic, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, November 13, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[17] K. Kuferschmidt, Estimating the Ebola epidemic, Science 345 (2014), pp. 1108-1109. doi: 10.1126/science.345.6201.1108[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[18] A.J. Kucharski and W.J. Edmunds, Case fatality rate for Ebola virus disease in West Africa, Lancet 384 (2014). doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61706-2[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[19] J. Legrand, R.F. Grais, P.Y. Boelle, A.J. Valleron, and A. Flahault, Understanding the dynamics of Ebola epidemics, Epidemiol. Infect. 135(4) (2007), pp. 610-621. doi: 10.1017/S0950268806007217[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[20] P.E. Lekone and B.F. Finkenstadt, Statistical inference in a stochastic epidemic SEIR model with control intervention: Ebola as a case study, Biometrics 62 (2006), pp. 1170-1177. doi: 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2006.00609.x[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1114.62120
[21] J.A. Lewnard, M.L. Ndeffo Mbah, J.A. Alfaro-Murillo, F.L. Altice, L. Bawo, T.G. Nyenswah, and A.P. Galvani, Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis, Lancet Infect. Dis 14(12) (2014), pp. 1189-1195. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(14)70995-8[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[22] S. Merler, M. Ajelli, L. Fumanelli, M. Gomes, A. Piontti, L. Rossi, D.L. Chao, I.M. Longini, M.E. Halloran, and A. Vespignani, Spatiotemporal spread of the 2014 outbreak of Ebola virus disease in Liberia and the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions: A computational modelling analysis, Lancet Infect. Dis. January 6, 2015. [Google Scholar]
[23] M. Meltzer, C. Atkins, S. Santibanez, B. Knust, B. Petersen, E. Ervin, S. Nichol, I. Damon, and M. Washington, Estimating the future number of cases in the Ebola epidemic Liberia and Sierra Leone, 20142015, CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, September 26, 63 (2014), pp. 1-14. [Google Scholar]
[24] H. Nishiura and G. Chowell, Early transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease (EVD), West Africa, March to August 2014, Eurosurveil. 19(36) (2014). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES2014.19.36.20894[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[25] A. Pandey, K.E. Atkins, J. Medlock, N. Wenzel, J.P. Townsend, J.E. Childs, T.G. Nyenswah, M.L. Ndeffo-Mbah, and A.P. Galvani, Strategies for containing Ebola in West Africa, published online in Science, October 30, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[26] C. Rivers, E. Lofgren, M. Marathe, S. Eubank, and B. Lewis, Modeling the impact of interventions on an epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, November 6, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[27] J. Shaman, W. Yang, and S. Kandula, Inference and forecast of the current West African Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, October 31, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[28] T. Stadler, D. Kuhnert, D.A. Rasmussen, and L. du Plessis, Insights into the early epidemic spread of Ebola in Sierra Leone provided by viral sequence data, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, October 6, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[29] S. Towers, O. Patterson-Lomba, and C. Castillo-Chavez, Temporal Variations in the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2014 West Africa Ebola Outbreaks, PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 September 18. 2014. [Google Scholar]
[30] E. Volz and S. Pond, Phylodynamic analysis of Ebola virus in the 2014 Sierra Leone epidemic, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, October 24, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[31] G.F. Webb, M. Blaser, Y.-H. Hsieh, and J. Wu, Pre-symptomatic influenza transmission, surveillance, and school closings: Implications for novel influenza A(H1N1), Math. Mod. Nat. Phen. 3 (2010), pp. 191-205. doi: 10.1051/mmnp/20105312[Crossref], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar] · Zbl 1187.92065
[32] G.F. Webb, C. Browne, X. Huo, O. Seydi, M. Seydi, and P. Magal, A model of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa with contact tracing, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, January 30, 2015. [Google Scholar]
[33] R.A. White, E. MacDonald, B. Freiesleben de Blasio, K. Nygrd, L. Vold, and J.-A. Rttingen, Projected treatment capacity need is Sierra Leone, PLOS Currents Outbreaks, January 30, 2015. [Google Scholar]
[34] World Health Organization, Situation reports: Ebola response roadmap, Global Alert and Response (GAR), February 25, 2015, http://apps.who.int/ebola/en/current-situation/ebola-situation-report. [Google Scholar]
[35] World Health Organization, Ebola Response Team, Ebola virus disease in West Africa -The first 9 months of the epidemic and forward projections, N. Engl. J. Med, September 23, 2014. [Google Scholar]
[36] C.J.M. Whitty, J. Farrar, N. Ferguson, W.J. Edmunds, P. Piot, M. Leach, and S.C. Davies, Infectious disease: tough choices to reduce ebola transmission, Nature 515 (2014), pp. 192-194. doi: 10.1038/515192a[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
[37] D. Yamin, S. Gertler, M.L. Ndeffo-Mbah, L.A. Skrip, M.a. Fallah, T.G. Nyenswah, F.L. Altice, and A.P. Galvani, Effect of Ebola progression on transmission and control in Liberia, Ann. Int. Med. 162 (2015), pp. 11-17. doi: 10.7326/M14-2255[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®], [Google Scholar]
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. It attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming the completeness or perfect precision of the matching.