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Physiological age, health costs, and their interrelation. (English) Zbl 1403.62188

Summary: We demonstrate the impact of an observable health-related quantity on the evaluation of individual physiological ages by extending the phase-type aging model proposed by X. S. Lin and X. Liu [“Markov aging process and phase-type law of mortality”, N. Am. Actuar. J. 11, No. 4, 92–109 (2007; doi:10.1080/10920277.2007.10597486)]. In their model, an individual of a given calendar age has a determinable distribution of his or her physiological age. In our article, we use observable information to refine this distribution, thereby better connecting physiological age with the health of the individual. We illustrate our model using health cost data, and we investigate the impact of an observed health cost on the distribution of an individual’s physiological age. We also explore the impact on the expected present value of future health costs.

MSC:

62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
91B30 Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010)
91D20 Mathematical geography and demography
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