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Nonlinear joint dynamics between prices of crude oil and refined products. (English) Zbl 1402.91972

Summary: In this paper, we investigate the relationships between crude oil and refined product prices. We find that nonlinear correlations are stronger in the long-term than in the short-term. Crude oil and product prices are cointegrated and financial crisis in 2007-2008 caused a structural break of the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, different from the findings in most studies, we reveal that the relationships are almost symmetric based on a threshold error correction model. The so-called “asymmetric relationships” are caused by some outliers and financial crisis. Most of the time, crude oil prices play the major role in the adjustment process of the long-term equilibrium. However, refined product prices dominated crude oil prices during the period of financial crisis. Important policy and risk management implications can be learned from the empirical findings.

MSC:

91G80 Financial applications of other theories
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