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The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model. (English) Zbl 1400.91252

Summary: Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee-Carter approach and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65.

MSC:

91B30 Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010)
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
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