×

A new method of grey Verhulst model optimization. (Chinese. English summary) Zbl 1340.93016

Summary: Through the analysis of the traditional grey Verhulst model by using the reciprocal transformation to solve the whitening equation, it is found that the mismatch of the grey differential equation with whitening equation is the root of model errors. The method of directly using the reciprocal transformation sequence of the 1-AGO sequence to establish the grey differential equation that matches with the whitening equation by reciprocal transformation to estimate parameters is proposed. And the methods of optimizing the grey derivative to transform the gray equation and regarding the minimum of average relative error as index to determining the response coefficient are combined to optimize the model. The result shows that the optimization model is simulated and predicted with coincidence to the time response function expressed by the curve. Through the analysis of an example, it is shown that the simulation forecasting accuracy in traditional model is improved obviously by the optimization model.

MSC:

93A30 Mathematical modelling of systems (MSC2010)
PDFBibTeX XMLCite