×

zbMATH — the first resource for mathematics

Pre-symptomatic influenza transmission, surveillance, and school closings: implications for novel influenza A (H1N1). (English) Zbl 1187.92065
Summary: Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. We develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.

MSC:
92C60 Medical epidemiology
62P25 Applications of statistics to social sciences
65C20 Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics
62P10 Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis
37N25 Dynamical systems in biology
PDF BibTeX XML Cite
Full Text: DOI EuDML