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ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand. (English) Zbl 1168.91474

Summary: Box-Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980 to 2004. The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.

MSC:

91B74 Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.)
91B84 Economic time series analysis
91B82 Statistical methods; economic indices and measures
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References:

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