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The Brownian passage time model for earthquake recurrence probabilities. (English) Zbl 1152.86004

Summary: Estimation of the time interval until the next large earthquake in a seismic source region is a difficult problem. Conditional probabilities for recurrence times of large earthquakes are a reasonable and valid form for estimating the likelihood of future large earthquakes. In this paper, we estimate the interval time for the occurrence of the next large seismic event assuming that the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence is a maximum, provided that a large earthquake has not occurred in the elapsed time since the last large earthquake. We employ a point process probability distribution that is based on a simple physical model of the earthquake recycle, that is the Brownian passage time (BPT) model. BPT model is a renewal model that describes the statistical distribution of rupture time. Application of this model in earthquake forecasting will be given at the end of the paper.

MSC:

86A15 Seismology (including tsunami modeling), earthquakes
60G25 Prediction theory (aspects of stochastic processes)
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