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Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement. (English) Zbl 1103.91371
Summary: We investigate the feasibility of constructing mortality forecasts on the basis of the first two sets of single value decomposition vectors, rather than just on the first such set of vectors, as in the established Lee-Carter (Gaussian) approach to mortality forecasting. Three applications are presented and the resulting forecasts compared with those constructed using two similar approaches based on generalised linear and bilinear models with Poisson error structures.

MSC:
91D20 Mathematical geography and demography
62M20 Inference from stochastic processes and prediction
62P05 Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics
91B84 Economic time series analysis
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