##
**Forecasting changes in mortality: a search for a law of causes and effects.**
*(English)*
Zbl 1081.91602

Summary: We express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortality will likely prove to be inadequate in the future. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method, which overall has been empirically successful, uses auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) technology and contains no structural equation. This structure means that no information other than previous history can be introduced. We argue that rapid advances in medical science are taking place and that failure to reflect this information in our projection methodology will make resulting projections unsuitable.

### MSC:

91D20 | Mathematical geography and demography |

91B84 | Economic time series analysis |

91B30 | Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010) |

PDF
BibTeX
XML
Cite

\textit{S. Gutterman} and \textit{I. T. Vanderhoof}, N. Am. Actuar. J. 2, No. 4, 135--138 (1998; Zbl 1081.91602)

Full Text:
DOI

### References:

[1] | Hayflick Leonard, How and Why We Age (1994) |

[2] | Lee Ron, Society of Actuaries Seminar on the Impact of Mortality Improvement on Social Security: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S (1997) |

[3] | Mandelbrot , Benoit . 1997 .Fractals and Scaling in Finance, 72 New York : Springer Verlag . · Zbl 1005.91001 |

[4] | Popper , Karl . 1990 .A World of Propensities, 6 – 7 . Herndon, VA : Books International, Inc. |

This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. It attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming the completeness or perfect precision of the matching.