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Forecasting changes in mortality: a search for a law of causes and effects. (English) Zbl 1081.91602

Summary: We express a concern that certain commonly accepted methods of predicting mortality will likely prove to be inadequate in the future. Specifically, the Lee-Carter method, which overall has been empirically successful, uses auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) technology and contains no structural equation. This structure means that no information other than previous history can be introduced. We argue that rapid advances in medical science are taking place and that failure to reflect this information in our projection methodology will make resulting projections unsuitable.

MSC:

91D20 Mathematical geography and demography
91B84 Economic time series analysis
91B30 Risk theory, insurance (MSC2010)
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References:

[1] Hayflick Leonard, How and Why We Age (1994)
[2] Lee Ron, Society of Actuaries Seminar on the Impact of Mortality Improvement on Social Security: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S (1997)
[3] Mandelbrot , Benoit . 1997 .Fractals and Scaling in Finance, 72 New York : Springer Verlag . · Zbl 1005.91001
[4] Popper , Karl . 1990 .A World of Propensities, 6 – 7 . Herndon, VA : Books International, Inc.
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