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Probabilistic sophistication and stochastic monotonicity in the savage framework. (English) Zbl 1152.91415
Summary: M. J. Machina and D. Schmeidler [Econometrica 60, No. 4, 745-780 (1992; Zbl 0763.90012)] have shown that probabilistic sophistication can be obtained in a Savage setting without imposing expected utility by dropping Savage’s axiom P2 (sure-thing principle) and strengthening his axiom P4 (weak comparative probability). Their stronger axiom, however, embodies a degree of separability analogous to P2. In this note, we obtain probabilistic sophistication using Savage’s original axiom P4 and a weaker analog of Savage’s P2.
91B08 Individual preferences
91B70 Stochastic models in economics
Full Text: DOI
[1] Grant, S.; Polak, B., Bayesian beliefs with stochastic monotonicity: an extension of machina and schmeidler, J. econ. theory, 130, 264-282, (2006) · Zbl 1141.91382
[2] Machina, M.; Schmeidler, D., A more robust definition of subjective probability, Econometrica, 60, 745-780, (1992) · Zbl 0763.90012
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