×

Opinion dynamics: kinetic modelling with mass media, application to the Scottish independence referendum. (English) Zbl 1400.91414

Summary: We consider a kinetic model describing some mechanisms of opinion formation in the framework of referendums, where the individuals, who can interact between themselves and modify their opinion by means of spontaneous self-thinking, are moreover under the influence of mass media. We study, at the numerical level, both the transient and the asymptotic regimes. In particular, we point out that a plurality of media, with different orientations, is a key ingredient to allow pluralism and prevent consensus. The forecasts of the model are compared to some surveys related to the Scottish independence referendum of 2014.

MSC:

91D10 Models of societies, social and urban evolution
82C22 Interacting particle systems in time-dependent statistical mechanics
PDFBibTeX XMLCite
Full Text: DOI HAL

References:

[1] Galam, S., Sociophysics: A Physicist’s Modeling of Psycho-political Phenomena (Understanding Complex Systems) (2012), Springer
[2] Deffuant, G.; Neau, D.; Amblard, F.; Weisbuch, G., Mixing beliefs among interacting agents, Adv. Complex Syst., 3, 87-98 (2000)
[3] Hegselmann, R.; Krause, U., Opinion dynamics and bounded confidence: models, analysis and simulation, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Sim., 5, 3 (2002)
[4] Lichtenberg, J., Democracy and the Mass Media: A Collection of Essays (1990), Cambridge University Press
[5] Coxall, M., Human Manipulation, a Handbook (2013), Malcolm Coxall, Cornelio Books
[6] Ellul, J., Propaganda: The Formation of Men’s Attitudes (1973), Vintage Books: Vintage Books New York
[7] Helbing, D., Stochastic and Boltzmann-like models for behavioral changes, and their relation to game theory, Physica A, 193, 241-258 (1993)
[8] Helbing, D., Boltzmann-like and Boltzmann-Fokker-Planck equations as a foundation of behavioral models, Physica A, 196, 546-573 (1993) · Zbl 0804.92030
[9] Helbing, D., A mathematical model for the behavior of individuals in a social field, J. Math. Sociol., 19, 3, 189-219 (1994)
[10] Boudin, L.; Salvarani, F., Modelling opinion formation by means of kinetic equations, (Mathematical Modeling of Collective Behavior in Socio-economic and Life Sciences. Mathematical Modeling of Collective Behavior in Socio-economic and Life Sciences, Model. Simul. Sci. Eng. Technol. (2010), Birkhäuser Boston Inc.: Birkhäuser Boston Inc. Boston, MA), 245-270 · Zbl 1211.91212
[11] Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Redner, S., Bifurcation and patterns in compromise processes, Physica D, 183, 3-4, 190-204 (2003) · Zbl 1058.91069
[12] Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.; Vazquez, F.; Redner, S., Unity and discord in opinion dynamics, Physica A, 330, 1-2, 99-106 (2003), Randomness and complexity (Eilat, 2003) · Zbl 1054.91065
[13] Toscani, G., Kinetic models of opinion formation, Commun. Math. Sci., 4, 3, 481-496 (2006) · Zbl 1195.91128
[14] Düring, B.; Markowich, P.; Pietschmann, J.-F.; Wolfram, M.-T., Boltzmann and Fokker-Planck equations modelling opinion formation in the presence of strong leaders, Proc. R. Soc. A, 465, 2112, 2687-3708 (2009) · Zbl 1195.91127
[15] Borra, D.; Lorenzi, T., Asymptotic analysis of continuous opinion dynamics models under bounded confidence, Commun. Pure Appl. Anal., 12, 3, 1487-1499 (2013) · Zbl 1302.35385
[16] Boudin, L.; Salvarani, F., A kinetic approach to the study of opinion formation, M2AN Math. Model. Numer. Anal., 43, 3, 507-522 (2009) · Zbl 1163.91537
[17] Boudin, L.; Monaco, R.; Salvarani, F., Kinetic model for multidimensional opinion formation, Phys. Rev. E (3), 81, 3, Article 036109 pp. (2010), 9
[18] Boudin, L.; Mercier, A.; Salvarani, F., Conciliatory and contradictory dynamics in opinion formation, Physica A, 391, 22, 5672-5684 (2012)
[19] Bird, G. A., Molecular gas dynamics and the direct simulation of gas flows, (Oxford Engineering Science Series, vol. 42 (1995), The Clarendon Press Oxford University Press: The Clarendon Press Oxford University Press New York)
[20] Delitala, M.; Lorenzi, T., A mathematical model for value estimation with public information and herding, Kinet. Relat. Models, 7, 1, 29-44 (2014) · Zbl 1292.35303
This reference list is based on information provided by the publisher or from digital mathematics libraries. Its items are heuristically matched to zbMATH identifiers and may contain data conversion errors. In some cases that data have been complemented/enhanced by data from zbMATH Open. This attempts to reflect the references listed in the original paper as accurately as possible without claiming completeness or a perfect matching.